The 2026-27 NBA, by the Numbers

Win totals for all 30 teams, player ratings, and tools to test matchups and lineups. Every pick we make is locked before tip-off and graded in public, misses included.

Today's picksPlay the Draft gameSeason scoreboard →
59.3
Highest projected wins
Oklahoma City Thunder
+6.0
Biggest lift over the line
Golden State Warriors
−7.5
Biggest drop below the line
Philadelphia 76ers
Our record so far · 94 games58-36 straight up52-42 vs the betting line11.0 pts typical missFull scoreboard →

Updated November 4, 2026. Rosters as of October 19, after the opening-night cutdowns. Market lines from BetMGM on October 10, with a small adjustment for preseason results through October 12.

Today's Games

Wednesday, November 4. Expected margin and win chance for every game. Predictions lock on the morning of game day, using that day's injury report, and are scored after the final on the Season Tracker. Think you can beat the model? Pick the winners in Beat the Model.

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
PHI 38%DET 62%
DET favored by 4.2. PHI without Dominick Barlow; DET without Isaiah Joe, Jalen Duren.
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards
ATL 63%WAS 37%
ATL favored by 4.3. ATL without Jock Landale, Mouhamed Gueye; WAS without Justin Champagnie, Jamir Watkins.
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
MIL 11%BOS 89%
BOS favored by 16.6. BOS without Jayson Tatum.
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets
CHA 53%BKN 47%
CHA favored by 1.0. CHA without Grant Williams; BKN without Egor Dëmin.
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
CHI 20%NYK 80%
NYK favored by 11.3. NYK without Josh Hart.
Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
IND 40%MEM 60%
MEM favored by 3.3. IND without T.J. McConnell, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, Tyrese Haliburton; MEM without Scotty Pippen Jr..
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
UTA 37%NOP 63%
NOP favored by 4.6. UTA without Jusuf Nurkić, Jaren Jackson Jr.; NOP without Yves Missi.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder
CLE 32%OKC 68%
OKC favored by 6.3. CLE without Jaylon Tyson, Peyton Watson; OKC without Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
MIN 31%HOU 69%
HOU favored by 6.6. MIN without Terrence Shannon Jr., Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo; HOU without Steven Adams.
Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets
TOR 37%DEN 63%
DEN favored by 4.5. TOR without Kawhi Leonard; DEN without Spencer Jones.
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns
POR 55%PHX 45%
POR favored by 1.7. POR without Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe; PHX without Mark Williams.
Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
DAL 19%SAS 81%
SAS favored by 12.0. DAL without Santi Aldama, Max Christie, Dereck Lively II; SAS without Tobias Harris.
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
LAL 82%SAC 18%
LAL favored by 12.1. SAC without Maxime Raynaud, Keegan Murray, Ben Simmons.
Miami Heat at LA Clippers
MIA 70%LAC 30%
MIA favored by 7.1. LAC without Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal, Jordan Miller.

Win Projections

Our projected 2026-27 win total for each team. The amber bar is our projection and the teal tick is the sportsbook line; the small gray number is the gap between them.

Where we are above Vegas
Golden State Warriors+6.0we say 46.5, the line is 40.5
Boston Celtics+5.9we say 57.4, the line is 51.5
New Orleans Pelicans+4.5we say 32.0, the line is 27.5
Toronto Raptors+4.4we say 50.9, the line is 46.5
Brooklyn Nets+3.9we say 28.4, the line is 24.5
Where we are below Vegas
Philadelphia 76ers−7.5we say 43.0, the line is 50.5
Washington Wizards−5.8we say 28.7, the line is 34.5
Minnesota Timberwolves−4.8we say 43.7, the line is 48.5
San Antonio Spurs−4.7we say 54.8, the line is 59.5
Indiana Pacers−4.5we say 39.0, the line is 43.5

Top Players

Points per 100 possessions each player adds to a lineup of average teammates. The full list, with offense and defense, roles and projected minutes, is on the ratings page.

1+12.3
Nikola Jokić
DEN · C · age 31
2+12.1
Victor Wembanyama
SAS · C · age 22
3+10.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC · PG · age 28
4+9.4
Kawhi Leonard
TOR · SF · age 35
5+8.3
Giannis Antetokounmpo
MIA · PF · age 31
6+7.9
Luka Dončić
LAL · SF · age 27
7+5.9
Chet Holmgren
OKC · C · age 24
8+5.8
Donovan Mitchell
CLE · SG · age 30

Tools

Player and Team RatingsEvery player's rating with offense and defense, roles and projected minutes, plus a rating for each team.Open →Power RankingsAll 30 teams ranked by current team rating, updated after every game, with weekly movement.Open →GamesDraft a five-man lineup without seeing ratings, then pick the winners of every game against our model.Open →Season TrackerTwo public scorecards, straight-up picks and picks against the spread, both locked before tip-off and graded after the final, plus updated win totals and playoff odds.Open →Matchup CheckerPick any two teams. Expected margin, win chance, and what changes if a star sits.Open →Lineup BuilderBuild any five-man unit and see how the mix of players moves its rating.Open →

How Much to Trust This

Win Totals

In past seasons a typical team finished about five to seven wins from its projection, and roughly one team in three missed by more than eight. Injuries and trades can move any team much further.

Single Games

Not a betting edge. Sportsbook lines were better at picking single-game winners because they know about injuries and rest, so treat our game numbers as context.

Player Ratings

Ratings describe how players have performed and what we expect from them. They work best for stars and regulars. Players with little recent playing time, rookies and players returning from long injuries are less certain.

Not modeled: injuries after the November 4 list, roster moves after October 19, and in-season changes to minutes. Rookies are rated from their college performance and draft position, so they are the least certain ratings of all.

Updates

  • Oct 15, 2026Site launched at gavinleo.com. Rosters as of Oct 12 (before the Oct 19-20 cutdowns); market lines as of Oct 10.
  • Oct 15, 2026Ages are now calculated from birth dates, so they stay correct through the season. Ratings page: new "hide small samples" filter and a "Clear filters" button.
  • Oct 15, 2026Tables can be sorted from the keyboard; labels and descriptions added for assistive technology.
  • Oct 18, 2026New look across the site: a bolder header on every page, navy table headings, and a redesigned projections page that shows where our numbers sit against the sportsbook line.
  • Oct 19, 2026Model update: players with little recent playing time are now rated more conservatively, so a few minutes of hot shooting no longer produces a star rating. Projections for a handful of teams moved by a fraction of a win.
  • Oct 19, 2026New Games page: an endless Draft where you build a five-man lineup with no positions, using skill tags (creators, shooters, rim protectors) and the Lineup Builder's own model to score it, plus Beat the Model, where you pick the winners of each day's games before tip-off.
  • Oct 19, 2026Rosters updated after the opening-night cutdowns: players who were waived are removed, and players who changed teams are on their new teams. Team projections moved by up to a few wins.