2026-27 NBA season tracker and scorecard
Scorecard
Upcoming predictions
Season outlook
How this works
Definitions: every number on this page
- Scorecard
- Games scored (locked)
- Games whose prediction was frozen on or before the morning of game day and that are now final. Predictions made after a game are tracked separately and never counted here.
- Typical miss
- The average size, in points, of the gap between the predicted and the actual home-team margin. Lower is better.
- Winners picked
- The share of games in which the team we favored won.
- Brier score
- A score for the win probabilities: 0 is perfect and 0.250 is what you would get by always saying 50%. Lower is better.
- Mean error
- The average of actual margin minus predicted margin. Positive means home teams did better than we predicted; it should stay near zero.
- Calibration chart
- Games are grouped by our predicted home win chance. A bubble on the dashed line means those probabilities came true; bubble size is the number of games in the group.
- Recent results
- Predicted (home) is the margin we expected, home minus away. Home win % is the chance we gave the home team. Final margin is the actual home minus away. Miss is final minus predicted; green when within 10 points.
- What to expect box
- How the same system would have done on all 1,230 games of 2025-26 without knowing the results in advance. It shows how far to trust this season's numbers; real accuracy should be a little better once injuries are known.
- Upcoming predictions
- "X by Y" is the favorite and the expected margin; the percentage is its win chance and the bar shows it. The expected margin reflects how strong each team is right now, home court, back-to-backs and known absences.
- Season outlook
- Record
- Wins and losses in the games the feed has finished.
- Rating, pre
- The team's current rating, in points per 100 possessions better than an average team, updated after every game, and its preseason value.
- Preseason
- Our published preseason win projection.
- Proj wins and the range
- Projected final win total: wins already earned plus the wins we expect in the games left, with a range that shows how uncertain it is.
- Line, P(over)
- The BetMGM win total recorded October 10, and the share of simulations in which the team finishes with more wins than that number.
- P(#1 seed), P(top 6), P(play-in), P(top 10)
- The share of simulations in which the team finishes first in its conference, in the top six (direct playoff entry), in seeds seven through ten (play-in), and in the top ten (playoff or play-in). Ties are broken at random, so these are approximations of the league's tiebreak rules.
- The simulation
- Thousands of simulated seasons of the games still to be played, used for the win ranges, seeds and playoff odds.
Predictions. Each game is predicted from how strong the two teams are right now, plus home court, back-to-backs and known absences.
Locking. A prediction is refreshed daily until its game day starts, then frozen. Only frozen predictions count in the scorecard; games predicted after the fact are shown separately as "replay" and never mixed in.
Season outlook. The rest of the schedule is simulated thousands of times to estimate final win totals, seeds and playoff odds.
Limits. Injuries come from a hand-kept list, so late scratches are not reflected. The schedule feed lists 1,200 of about 1,230 games. The missing games are filled at each team's average win rate in the season simulation only; they never enter the scorecard, which counts only locked predictions for games that have a final score. This is analysis, not betting advice: against the closing line we are still behind on single games.