2026-27 NBA matchup checker

Pick two teams to see the expected margin, the chance each side wins, and how a missing star changes it. Team ratings come from our 2026-27 win projections. Tick the back-to-back boxes to include tired legs.

Away team

Home team

Neutral court Away team on a back-to-back Home team on a back-to-back Sportsbook line for the home team

How much should you trust this?

We checked this approach by replaying thousands of past games using only what was known before each one. The favorites it picks win about two games in three, a little behind sportsbook lines, which also know about injuries and rest.

The win chances are well calibrated: games we called 65% to 80% for the home team were won about 73% of the time. But one game is noisy: a 70% favorite still loses three times in ten. Our gaps from the sportsbook line were not a betting edge, so read them as context.

What this page does not know: current injuries, rest beyond back-to-backs (use the checkboxes), and anything after October 12. It uses preseason ratings. The season tracker updates team ratings from real results and locks daily game predictions that include known injuries and back-to-backs.

Definitions: every number on this page

Team rating: How many points per 100 possessions better than an average team a roster is, taken from our projected win total.
Expected margin: Our estimate of the home score minus the away score: the two teams' strength, home court, any back-to-backs and any player marked out.
Win chance: How likely each side is to win, from the expected margin and how much single-game results typically vary.
The curve: The full spread of likely final margins. The dashed line is the expected margin; the shaded sides show the area for each team winning; the heavier line is your sportsbook line if you entered one.
Neutral court: Removes home-court advantage.
Back-to-back checkboxes: Mark a team playing the second game in two nights; the page lowers its expected margin to reflect tired legs.
Expected / Out / Healthy buttons: What-ifs for each player. Expected keeps the team rating as is, which already counts the games he is projected to miss. Out lowers it by what the player is worth. Healthy raises it by the value of the games he is expected to miss. The buttons change only that team's rating, not minutes or opponent.
Sportsbook line and cover chance: Enter the home team's spread (negative means the home team is favored). The page shows how far our expected margin is from the line and the chance the home team covers it. Treat any gap as context, not an edge.
Calibration: A 65% to 80% home favorite should win about three times in four. Games we gave the home team 65% to 80% were won about 73% of the time.